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A statistical water balance and time series modeling framework is developed to analyze and forecast the Missouri River’s monthly flow at Bismarck from 1954 to 2024. Integrating traditional hydrological components precipitation, evaporation, upstream inflow, tributaries with ARIMA and SARIMA models enable detection of long-term and seasonal trends. Model fit is rigorously assessed by AIC, AICc, BIC, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, and visual diagnostics with credible intervals. Stationarity is evaluated through ADF and KPSS tests to guide model selection. The final SARIMA framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformation and outlier adjustment, produces reliable forecasts with quantified uncertainty for both typical and extreme hydrologic conditions. These forecasts are vital for river management and policy, demonstrating how statistical rigor and visual assessment underpin adaptive water management strategies.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2026
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Asare, Boampong; Sah, Manohar; Hona, Ram Krishna (, International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics)
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Asare, Boampong; Sah, Manohar; Hona, Ram Krishna (, Applied Mathematics)Making exact approximations to solve equations distinguishes applied mathematicians from pure mathematicians, physicists, and engineers. Perturbation problems, both regular and singular, are pervasive in diverse fields of applied mathematics and engineering. This research paper provides a comprehensive overview of algebraic methods for solving perturbation problems, featuring a comparative analysis of their strengths and limitations. Serving as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners, it offers insights and guidance for tackling perturbation problems in various disciplines, facilitating the advancement of applied mathematics and engineering.more » « less
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